Global
warming is the preliminary impact exerted by climate change, with all others
being reverberations of increased average temperature. Peoples of the world
have been facing stark climatic conditions since the industrial revolution of
mid 1700s. The rampant increase in earth's average annual temperature, from
0.85 degree Celsius in 1880 to about 1 degree Celsius in 2020 (IPCC-SR),
intervenes in various social and natural processes by altering snow covers, sea
levels and weather patterns at local, regional and planetary level. The adverse
impacts of climate change have been making the global communities vulnerable to
inundation of low-lying lands and extreme weather events such as cyclones,
floods and droughts of higher magnitudes than recorded ever before in annals of
history. Consequently, the survival in terms of food and health security of
vulnerable communities is in a dire strait. This vulnerability, however, is not
uniform: in fact low and middle income countries are more disaster-prone,
notwithstanding, that they are among countries with least carbon emissions.
This increased vulnerability is attributed to reduced carrying capacity (capital
and human resources available for resistance and resilience towards climatic
impacts) of the less developed communities which in turn arises from various
non-climatic factors such as non-uniform distribution of resources, unequal economic
growth and obstinate behaviors at authoritative levels.
Pakistan
is one such country whose greenhouse gas emission is minimal, i.e., <1%, but
is ranked 5th among countries most affected from 1990 to 2018 as per Global
Climate Risk. Its major cosmopolitan city, Karachi, which is also a coastal
city is ranked 19th among highly vulnerable locations. In context of Pakistan,
its economic instability is the biggest hurdle which is impairing its efforts
in curbing climate change. Pakistan is, yet, amid the process of becoming a
fully industrialized country and its energy consumption is characterized by the
use of conventional resources such as oil, coal and natural gas. But its GHG
emissions from industrial sector vis-a-vis developed countries are very low. At
the other hand, anthropogenic activities like intense deforestation for
acquiring fuel wood and clearing land for agricultural activities remains a
principal agent in its land and climate deterioration. Although contributing
little on global scale, Pakistan's carbon footprint is still significant at
local and regional scale. Raising the issue with an early career climate
researcher and principal investigator of Asia Pacific Network funded project on
climate communication, Rida Sehar Kiani, revealed some of the aspects of recent
developments regarding country's climate profile. "For Pakistan, as there
are number of coal fired industries, it cannot be denied that
industrialization, particularly the energy sector, has the largest share in the
GHGs profile of the country, hence, can be attributed as one of the major
causes of climate change". Other than this, she stated that conversion of
forested lands into urban settings does not only deteriorate the carbon sink,
but also converts it into a major source, hence increasing the GHG budget of
the country.
Sharing
the fear of impacts these events have on country's climate, she stated, “The
future temperature increase over Pakistan is projected to be higher than the
global average. So, the situation is highly critical". She also believed
that strong will at government level could streamline all other efforts
including technological development, resource management and change in public behavior.
While this problem directly affects laymen, it unfortunately is their least
concern. Therefore, to attain the desired result, education of masses should be
prioritized.
The
remedy of the ailment is possible only when the basic understanding of the
disease is achieved. In terms of combating climate change, the advanced
research is the prerequisite, with its implications being secondary in reducing
the vulnerabilities. "I think there is a long way to go yet. Although,
Pakistan has strong research base and our scientific community is displaying commendable
efforts, dedicated and robust research efforts based on advanced tools and
technologies are still required", said the APN researcher Rida Sehar
Kiani. Attention was directed to yet another important dimension of the issue:
communication of science to the policymakers. The climate researcher said that
one of the main purposes behind conducting any research is to guide the
stakeholders in devising effective and relevant policy measures and this
exactly is an important missing link in our war against climate change.
In
the wake of threat posed by Corona pandemic, strict lock down measures are
being observed throughout the world. This has resulted in reduced air and water
pollution with various animal species turning back to roads and streets. This
has invoked a new thought in certain groups of climate scientists who are now
of the view that these measures in a long term can be proved fruitful. However,
it is not an optimum solution as it carries a diverse range of socio-economic
impacts. In short term although, it can be said that little good change can be
felt this year as Pakistan is one of the countries which face severe smog
conditions. Predicting the smog prevalence, Rida said, "Lockdown is not an
ultimate solution. But, if it prolongs, then lesser smog will be experienced
this year in Pakistan." she added saying that only a comprehensive and an
integrated plan can save the face of the country which takes into account the
cost of human survival as well as the economic development. For this purpose, a
widened gap between researchers and the policymakers must be abridged. Being a
climate researcher herself, Rida was optimist that research guided policies
along with pro-climatic technological developments can give us remarkable
results.
Compared
to previous records, Pakistan has already been showing betterment in its
environmental policy making. The 10 Billion tree project of Prime Minister
Imran Khan is gathering great applause worldwide. But, this single effort is
far from enough and an integrated approach is a crucial requirement. One of the
necessary changes in behavior is the shift from conventional to cleaner and
renewable energy which should also be instilled in minds of consumers at
individual level. Being a middle income nation, it is necessary to channel our
efforts in adaptation measures more than in mitigation measures. With a little
improvement in creating a link between policymaking and advanced climate
research, Pakistan can turn the looming threat of climate change away from its
borders in a longer run.
Written by: Amna Khan - Graduate in Environmental Sciences
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